Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor, dan Investasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Sektor Pertanian Indonesia

Abstract

English Promoting agricultural sector is important for improving Indonesia economic performance. The objectives of the research are to determine the effects of levels and shocks of agricultural export, import, and investment on the growth (GDP) of the Indonesian agriculture sector. The research was conducted using quarterly time series data from 2000–2015. Vector Auto Regression analysis method was applied in this study. The causality analysis shows that the agricultural export, import, and investment levels do not significantly affect the agricultural GDP growth, but the agricultural GDP growth does significantly affect the level of agricultural export, import, and investment. The impulse response analysis shows that the investment response to GDP growth shocks is higher than that of export and import responses. The variance of decomposition analysis shows that the contribution of exports to agricultural GDP growth are larger than the contribution of imports and investments. This study concludes that the absolute value of the agricultural sector export, import, and investment do not affect the sector GDP growth rate, but the agricultural sector GDP growth rate affect the absolute value of the sector export, import, and investment in Indonesia. Indonesian Mendorong pertumbuhan sektor pertanian Indonesia adalah penting untuk peningkatan kinerja perekonomian Indonesia. Tujuan penelitian adalah mengetahui pengaruh besaran dan goncangan (shock) ekspor, impor, dan investasi sektor pertanian terhadap pertumbuhan (GDP) sektor pertanian Indonesia. Penelitian dilakukan dengan menggunakan data time series triwulanan dari tahun 2000–2015. Penelitian menggunakan metode analisis Vector Auto Regression (VAR). Hasil analisis kausalitas menunjukkan bahwa ekspor, impor, dan investasi pertanian tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan PDB sektor pertanian, namun pertumbuhan PDB sektor pertanian berpengaruh nyata terhadap ekspor, impor, dan investasi pertanian. Hasil analisis impulse response menunjukkan bahwa respons investasi terhadap goncangan pertumbuhan PDB lebih besar dibandingkan respons besaran ekspor dan impor, Analisis variance decomposition menunjukkan kontribusi ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan PDB lebih besar dibandingkan dengan kontribusi impor dan investasi. Hasil penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa besaran absolut ekspor, impor, dan investasi pertanian tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap laju pertumbuhan PDB sektor pertanian, namun pertumbuhan PDB sektor pertanian berpengaruh nyata terhadap besaran ekspor, impor, dan investasi pertanian di Indonesia.