Detection of recent regional sea surface temperature warming in the Caribbean and surrounding region

Abstract

We show a sea surface temperature (SST) warming trend for the Caribbean and surrounding region over 1982-2012. Using an optimum interpolated SST product, a 30 year climatological analysis was generated to observe annual, monthly, and seasonal trends. Results show that SSTs are increasing annually for the region. For the two Caribbean rainy seasons, the Early Rainfall Season (ERS) and the Late Rainfall Season (LRS), estimated trends at 0.0161°C yr-1 and 0.0209°C yr-1 were observed, with high statistical significance. Subregional analysis revealed that warming is greatest in the Gulf of Mexico and north of South America during the ERS and LRS. Additionally, LRS averages for 1998-2012 reflect an increase in magnitude and intensity of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) since the 1983-1997 period reflected in the AWP Area Index. Extreme increases/decreases in the time series show potential correlation with El Niño and the Southern Oscillation.