The Effect of Climate Change on Forest Fire Danger and Severity in the Canadian Boreal Forests for the Period 1976–2100

Abstract

Recent climatic trends have increased forest fire activity in Canada. This study aimed to evaluate how forest fire conditions might evolve across the Canadian boreal forests in the future and to inform discussions about the impact of climate change on fire danger and severity. I generated surfaces of daily climate conditions using daily observational data from meteorological stations across Canada from 1976 to 2014. Simulated daily values of the same climatic variables were obtained from four earth system models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 project (CMIP5) for the historical period 1976–2005. Daily climate values for 2006–2100, forced by three climate change scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, were also simulated by the models. The simulated data were bias-corrected and delta-downscaled to project future trends in fire activity to assess the spatiotemporal variations of the potential impacts of climate change on forest fires. My results suggest fire danger and severity would increase in many Canadian boreal forests under RCP 8.5. The changes in fire conditions under RCP 2.6 were the least noteworthy; RCP 4.5 was associated with medium-level changes.