Shifting from even-aged management to less intensive forestry in varying proportions of forest land in Finland: impacts on carbon storage, harvest removals, and harvesting costs

Abstract

Many studies have reported increased multi-functionality and financial profits due to a shift from even- to uneven-aged forest management. However, little is known (from long-term experiences or predictions) how alternative management systems could affect national-scale wood production and carbon storage, if adopted over very large areas. We analysed these effects using an area-based framework, in which multiple Markov chain models were used to simulate the development of forests according to different management systems. Classification of forests to wood availability categories was used to determine the system to be applied. We enhanced the framework to allow shifts between management systems that correspond to enforced or voluntary changes in forest use. Simulations of extensive shifts from conventional even-aged management to alternative silvicultural systems revealed interesting developmental patterns that cannot be directly deduced from studies that upscale from smaller areas. Our results show that the amount of carbon stored by Finnish forests can be increased by applying less intensive management systems, although this has trade-offs in terms of harvests and associated financial costs. The level of trade-offs differed depending on the type of forest that shifted between management systems and whether areas were also assumed to be completely set aside from forestry. These differences were further pronounced if the desired harvest levels and their allocation changed along with the management system. If the studied attributes were considered at the same relative scale and with equal weighting, the extensive shifts to alternative management systems exhibited the strongest impact on harvesting costs.