Prediction of Potential Distribution Patterns of Three Larix Species on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Future Climate Scenarios

Abstract

How climate change affects the plants on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) has become a hot research topic in recent years. It was widely recognized that Larix. are sensitive to climate change, while the corresponding research of Larix. on the QTP has been rare. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, we predicted the potential distribution patterns of Larix potaninii Batalin, Larix griffithii and Larix speciosa on the QTP in this study under different future climate scenarios. The results demonstrated that the area of suitable habitat for Larix potaninii Batalin (Larix griffithii) presented a loss (gain) trend, while that for Larix speciosa remained unchanged on the whole. The centroids of their suitable habits all migrated to the high-altitude and high-latitude areas, suggesting the three species may take the same survival strategy in response to climate change. Annual Precipitation was the most significant environmental factor influencing the distribution pattern of Larix potaninii Batalin, while Temperature Annual Range was the most significant for Larix griffithii and Larix speciosa. The overlapping potential suitable area for the three Larix species was the maximum under the 2041–2060 SSP126 future climate scenarios and decreased with the increasing emission concentration, suggesting that the niches of these species may step towards separation. This study suggested the survival strategies of the Larix species in response to climate change and the findings may provide a reliable basis for conserving the endangered Larix species under different future climate scenarios.