Analysis and forecast of regional freight characteristics in the silk road economic belt

Abstract

The proposal of building the Silk Road Economic Belt aiming to strengthen cooperation among Asian and European nations will benefit all the people along this Economic Belt. To establish the Silk Road Economic Belt, comprehensive transport systems are a principal premise. Freight is an important part of comprehensive transport systems. Thus, in this study, a curve regression model is established for statistics analysis and forecast freight turnover quantity and freight volume of nine provinces in China, in the Silk Road Economic Belt. Detailed parameters of the model could be calculated by SPSS, including a significant and fitting test. The calculation results by SPSS show that this curve regression model has a good fitness to actual freight data and could be significant. Finally, the development trend of freight turnover quantity and freight volume of nine provinces in future from 2015 to 2020 is predicted using the model, according to the supposed GDP growth rate (7%). The results of the actual case analysis prove the feasibility and efficiency of the curve regression model. All these research results can be used to guide the construction of the comprehensive transportation system in the Silk Road Economic Belt.