The Limits of Erosion Modeling

Abstract

Modeling soil erosion by water is only about sixty years old as a scientific activity, but has played a vital role both in advancing our understanding of erosional processes, and in applications to the problem of prediction and design of conservation strategies. Yet despite some ambitious claims, current soil erosion models are still inadequate in many respects (e.g., De Roo, 1993; Favis-Mortlock, 1994; 1998c; Jetten et al., 1999; Parsons and Wainwright, 2000). Very few models have been ‘validated’ in any scientifically acceptable sense. They may work reasonably well for specific circumstances, or with calibration. Outside of this domain results are disappointing and often are not easy to explain. This chapter discusses some of the weaknesses associated with present-day models for soil erosion by water, and considers the constraints (and opportunities) which these shortcomings might present for the next generation of models