Application of genetic algorithms to optimize a truncated mean k-nearest neighbours regressor for hotel reservation forecasting

Abstract

Progress in information technologies and their broad social expansion have led to the appearance of websites specialized in online hotel booking. These sites offer new approaches for customers that have demonstrated a strong tendency towards making last minute reservations. This scenario has dramatically affected the task of predicting hotel bookings, making these estimations is now much more complex using the traditional forecasting models. Given the importance of this estimation, it is crucial to find more accurate prediction models that take into account these new situations. This work aims to develop an application to predict hotel room reservations that tackles the consequences of last-minute reservations. Our proposal combines genetic algorithms optimization and truncated mean k-nearest neighbours regressor. After the analysis, we conclude that our method shows a significant improvement regarding working with historical booking information when compared with classical models. Therefore, the results of the study illustrate that our application will enable the development of useful prediction demand calendars. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.