Deterministic Laws and Epistemic Chances

Abstract

In this paper, a concept of chance is introduced that is compatible with deterministic physical laws, yet does justice to our use of chance-talk in connection with typical games of chance, and in classical statistical mechanics. We take our cue from what Poincaré called “the method of arbitrary functions,” and elaborate upon a suggestion made by Savage in connection with this. Comparison is made between this notion of chance, and David Lewis’ conception.