A simple model to predict the potential abundance of aedes aegypti mosquitoes one month in advance

Abstract

The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) is the primary vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses in the United States. Surveillance for adult Ae. aegypti is limited, hindering understanding of the mosquito's seasonal patterns and predictions of areas at elevated risk for autochthonous virus transmission. We developed a simple, intuitive empirical model that uses readily available temperature and humidity variables to predict environmental suitability for low, medium, or high potential abundance of adult Ae. aegypti in a given city 1 month in advance. Potential abundance was correctly predicted in 73% of months in arid Phoenix, AZ (over a 10-year period), and 63% of months in humid Miami, FL (over a 2-year period). The monthly model predictions can be updated daily, weekly, or monthly and thusmaybe applied to forecast suitable conditions for Ae. aegypti to inform vector-control activities and guide household-level actions to reduce mosquito habitat and human exposure.