CT-based decision tree model for predicting EGFR mutation status in synchronous multiple primary lung cancers

Abstract

Background: The current study aimed to construct a computed tomography (CT)-based decision tree algorithm (DTA) model to predict the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation status in synchronous multiple primary lung cancers (SMPLCs). Methods: The demographic and CT findings of 85 patients with molecular profiling for surgically resected SMPLCs were reviewed retrospectively. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to select the potential predictors of EGFR mutation, and a CT-DTA model was developed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were performed to assess the performance of this CT-DTA model. Results: The CT-DTA model was applied to predict the EGFR mutant that had ten binary split, of which eight parameters to accurately categorize the lesions as follows: the presence of bubble-like vacuole sign (19.4% importance in the development of the model), presence of air bronchogram sign (17.4% importance), smoking status (15.7% importance), types of the lesions (14.8% importance), histology (12.6% importance), presence of pleural indentation sign (7.6% importance), gender (6.9% importance), and presence of lobulation sign (5.6% importance). The ROC analysis achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.854. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that this CT-DTA model was an independent predictor of EGFR mutation (P<0.001). Conclusions: CT-DTA model is a simple tool to predict the status of EGFR mutation in SMPLC patients and could be considered for treatment decision-making.