Quantification of the effect of forest harvesting versus climate on streamflow cycles and trends in an evergreen broadleaf catchment

Abstract

A new method known as Unobserved Components–Dynamic Harmonic Regression (UC-DHR) was applied to a 39-year record of rainfall and streamflow for three sub-catchments of the Sarukawa Experimental Watershed in southwestern Japan. Some 25% of the timber was harvested from one of the sub-catchments in May–July 1982 and the objective was to quantify the magnitude of this effect relative to the effects of climate cycles (e.g. Southern Oscillation Index). The observed effects of inter-annual climate cycles (i.e. 0.89–1.36 mm/d) were seen to be comparable (i.e. 0.70–1.17 mm/d) to the effects of harvesting 25% of the standing timber. This result underlines the importance of always quantifying the effect of climate on streamflow response when harvesting impacts are studied. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor T. Okruszko