The effect of temperature and heat waves on daily mortality in Budapest, Hungary, 1970-2000

Abstract

We investigated the association of weather on daily mortality in Budapest, 1970-2000, with special regard to heat waves. Budapest has a continental climate and experiences extreme heat episodes. In the past 30 years, the minimum and maximum daily temperatures in Budapest has significantly increased, as well as daily variability in summer. A 5°C increase in daily mean temperature above 18°C increases the risk of total mortality by 10.6 % (95 % CI 9.7, 14.0). The effect of hot weather on cardiovascular mortality is even greater. Six heat episodes were identified from 1993 to 2000 using standardized methods. During each episode, a short term excess in mortality occurred. During the early June heatwave in 2000, excess mortality was greater than 50 % over the three day period. We conclude that temperature, especially heat waves, represent an important environmental burden on mortality in the residents of Budapest. Heat waves that occur early in the summer are particularly dangerous. There is a need to improve public health advice in order to reduce the burden of heat waves on human health in Hungary. © 2005 World Health Organization.