Changing spatiotemporal patterns of 5-and 10-day illinois heavy precipitation amounts, 1900–2018

Abstract

This study examined the spatiotemporal variability associated with 5-/10-day heavy precipitation amounts for 48 high-quality and long-duration (1900–2018) stations in Illinois. The top five seasonal and annual heavy precipitation amounts for each duration were determined and examined for each station. Annual and seasonal spatial patterns generally showed a trend of decreasing precipitation amounts as one moved northward through Illinois. Spatial distributions of the top seasonal amounts exhibited the highest values in boreal spring and summer, with the lowest values during winter. Temporal analysis of the top five 5-and 10-day amounts from 1900 to 2018 indicated an increasing trend with a higher frequencies in the 2000–18 period for spring, summer, winter, and annual time periods (statistically significant for spring and annual). No trend was found in autumn heavy precipitation occurrence. In addition, heavy precipitation events were examined in the context of the background atmospheric environment using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis. Event-averaged precipitable water values were shown to scale linearly with total precipitation in the winter season. Low-level circulation fields indicate that the most widespread heavy rain episodes occur when a synoptic anticyclone is positioned off the coast of the eastern United States. Results from this study suggest that design values used for hydrologic structures should be reevaluated given recent observations.