Future changes and seasonal variability of the directional wave spectra in the Mediterranean Sea for the 21st century

Abstract

A state-of-the-art regional assessment of future directional wave spectra in the Mediterranean Sea and the projected changes with respect to hindcast is presented. A multi-model EURO-CORDEX regional ensemble of bias-adjusted wave climate projections in eleven locations of the Mediterranean are used for the assessment of future seasonal changes in the directional wave spectra under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. This analysis allows us to identify climate change effects on the spectral energy of the swell and wind-sea systems and their seasonal variability which cannot be captured with the standard integrated wave parameters, such as significant wave height and mean wave direction. The results show an overall robust decrease in the predominant wave systems, resulting in a likely decrease in the significant wave height that is in agreement with previous studies. However, the results depict a robust increase in other less energetic frequencies and directions leading to a projected behavioral change from unimodal to bimodal/multimodal wave climate in many locations which has strong repercussions on the vulnerability of coastal assets and ports operability.