Tracking phenology over 125 years among native flora of the New Jersey Pine Barrens

Abstract

Climate change has altered the phenological timing of plants across the globe. These changes are especially concerning for plants with small distributions and in unique ecological sites. Here, we examined changes in phenology with respect to temperature and year over a 125-yr span for 12 herbaceous species native to the lowlands of the New Jersey Pine Barrens using herbarium specimens and citizen science observations. Among early summer flowering species, flowering occurred on average 1.42 days/°C earlier in the spring of the corresponding year. Early summer flowering species flowered at an average rate of 0.071 days/yr earlier over the 125-yr study period, whereas no significant change was detected in flowering times of late summer species. Exploration of a set of sister taxa with differing range sizes resulted in no detectable shifts in phenology, which may be explained by evolutionary relatedness or flowering in late summer. The variation in responses to species in the New Jersey Pine Barrens may alter the balance of this ecosystem in the future, as some species respond to changing temperatures, whereas others do not. These results add to a growing body of work suggesting that variations in temperature due to climate change are affecting plant phenology.