How to improve the equity of health financial sources? - Simulation and analysis of total health expenditure of one Chinese province on system dynamics

Abstract

Introduction: We simulate and analyze Total Health Expenditure (THE) in financial sources and other economic indicators (such as THE per capita, GDP, etc.) in a province of China from 2002 to 2012 on System Dynamics. Methods: Based on actual data and certain mathematical methods, we use system dynamic software to construct a logic model for THE and changing proportions, and thus simulate the actual conditions of development and changes in THE. Results: According to the simulation results, the government possess the largest investment in the average annual growth rate of THE, which was 25.16 % in 2012. Social investment comprises the majority of the possession ratio, which was up to 41.20 %. Conclusions: The personal investment growth rate decreased by almost 21 %, but the total amount of personal investment increased by 28075 million yuan, which is far higher than the increase in government investment. Individuals are still the main carriers of health care expenses. The equity of health financial sources is still poor. The System Dynamics method used in this paper identifies a dynamic measurement process, provides a scientific basis for simulation and analysis of the changes in THE and its key constraining factors, as well as put forward suggestions for the improvement of equity of health financial sources.