Environmental sustainability and financial stability: can macroprudential stress testing measure and mitigate climate-related systemic financial risk?

Abstract

Despite widespread recognition among financial regulators and central banks that climate change may threaten financial stability, the causes and consequences of climate-related systemic financial risk remain underexplored. Stress testing has emerged as one of the most prevalent regulatory tools for addressing climate-related financial risks, and this article analyzes the role of stress testing in mitigating the effects of climate change on financial stability. Specifically, it synthesizes the multi-disciplinary literature on climate-related financial risk, financial stability, and stress testing to develop a framework for evaluating the capacity and effectiveness of stress tests for measuring and managing climate-related systemic financial risk. It then takes stock of climate stress testing proposals and early practices globally and applies the evaluative framework in comparative case studies of the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve. It concludes that stress testing can support the measurement and management of both microprudential and macroprudential climate-related financial risks, but the benefits of stress testing vis-à-vis climate change and financial stability are largely unrealized. Addressing the disconnect between climate stress testing policy motivation and implementation as well as the divergence between leading and lagging jurisdictions will require both interagency and international regulatory cooperation.