Improving Adaptive Learning Rate With Backpropogation on Retail Rice Price Prediction in Traditional Markets

Abstract

Rice is the most important staple food and carbohydrate food in the world especially people in Indonesia. This study aims to predict the retail price of rice in traditional markets using backpropogation by improvising Adaptive Learning Rate to increase the value of accuracy. Data sources were obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in 33 provinces in Indonesia for the retail price of rice in the traditional market (Rupiah / kg) for the past 6 years (2011-2016). The results of the study state that the improvised learning rate uses 2 models: 2-10-1 and 2-15-1 (LR= 0,1; 0,5; 0,9) that the best architectural models are 4-15-1 (LR= 0.9) with an accuracy of 82%, Training MSE 0,000999936, Testing MSE 0.016051433 and Epoch 20515. The results of this study are expected to provide input to the government in providing input on predictions of retail rice prices that have an impact on the stability of rice prices in Indonesia.