Dynamic Adaptive Planning (DAP): The Case of Intelligent Speed Adaptation

Abstract

This chapter aims to close the gap between the theory and practice of Dynamic Adaptive Planning (DAP). It (1) presents an operationalization of DAP using experts in a workshop setting, (2) applies this operationalization to a real-world policy problem involving a traffic safety technology called intelligent speed adaptation (ISA), and (3) presents both the resulting dynamic adaptive plan and the experiences of the participating stakeholders in designing the plan. The workshop was conducted with stakeholders who were likely to actually participate in the planning process for ISA in the Netherlands. The workshop was held in a computer-supported group decision room, an interactive, computer-based environment that helps a team of decisionmakers solve problems and make choices, and began with an initial promising plan. The participants then were guided through the process of (1) assessing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (vulnerabilities) of the initial plan, (2) selecting the most uncertain and most important opportunities and threats, (3) defining actions aimed at increasing the robustness of the initial plan, and specifying signposts and trigger values for contingent actions to be taken over time, and (4) testing the proposed plan’s performance in the face of ‘wildcard scenarios.’In an assessment of the workshop, the participants concluded that the adaptive plan that was developed is a promising step toward the large-scale implementation of ISA in the Netherlands, and that DAP is a useful approach for dealing with deep uncertainty.