Week ahead electricity price forecasting using artificial bee colony optimized extreme learning machine with wavelet decomposition

Abstract

Electricity price forecasting is one of the more complex processes, due to its non-linearity and highly varying nature. However, in today's deregulated market and smart grid environment, the forecasted price is one of the important data sources used by producers in the bidding process. It also helps the consumer know the hourly price in order to manage the monthly electricity price. In this paper, a novel electricity price forecasting method is presented, based on the Artificial Bee Colony optimized Extreme Learning Machine (ABC-ELM) with wavelet decomposition technique. This has been attempted with two different input data formats. Each data format is decomposed using wavelet decomposition, Daubechies Db4 at level 6; all the decomposed data are forecasted using the proposed method and aggregate is formed for the final prediction. This prediction has been attempted in three different electricity markets, in Finland, Switzerland and India. The forecasted values of the three different countries, using the proposed method are compared with various other methods, using graph plots and error metrics and the proposed method is found to provide better accuracy.