La Niña's signature: Synchronous decline of the mammal community in a 'protected' area in India

Abstract

Mounting evidence indicates large-scale climatic phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can overwhelm endogenous factors that govern the population dynamics of wild species. We add to this evidence by documenting an ENSO-related decline of large mammals in the Kumbhalgarh Wildlife Sanctuary, in Rajasthan, India. This event coincided with the drought of 2000, following two consecutive monsoon failures. Time series of biennial counts (1991-2005) shared a common feature: all 13 species declined in abundance from 1999 to 2001, with 11 species experiencing an apparent decline exceeding 25%. An ENSO index explained much of the variability in population size, apparently reflecting mass mortality and/or recruitment failure caused by the major 1998-2000 La Niña event, followed by a rapid rebound. ENSO apparently overwhelmed endogenous factors and synchronized the dynamics of the mammalian community. Our findings may prove to be symptomatic of geographically broad impacts of large-scale climate on the dynamics of terrestrial vertebrate communities, even in protected areas. Our findings reinforce the growing recognition that we should not overlook global-scale causal agents of ecological change. © 2007 The Authors.