Impact of energy consumption and CO2 emissions on food production in Pakistan: An econometric analysis

Abstract

Vision 2050 of UNO emphasizes doubling of world food production to achieve food security. Pakistan having 2.5% of the world population is food insecure country. It requires effective policies to meet the targets of UN Vision 2050. Analyzing the impact of some important factors of food production may be helpful to achieve sufficient food production in Pakistan. By using annual data from 1964 to 2015, this study estimates error correction model based upon ARDL co-integration technique to analyze dynamic impact of energy consumption and CO2 emissions along with other conventional inputs on food production in Pakistan. The study concludes short-run negative impact of energy consumption which is expected to be the price effect and, therefore, subsidized fuel price policy for framers is suggested. Environmental changes due to rising CO2 level are not adversely affecting food production as its estimates are significant with positive signs. Insignificance of physical capital and labor implies inefficient use of these inputs and a detailed analysis is recommended. Adverse impact of domestic credit induces revision of current policy regarding agricultural loans. Fertilizer off take shows positive impact whereas trade openness is insignificant for food production. Rising population shows negative impact on food production in Pakistan. Results of the study may be helpful for food policy makers in order to chase the Vision 2050.