Heterogeneous and distributional effects of Mexico's health insurance for the poor on the supply of healthcare services

Abstract

Background: The effects that the expansion of the Seguro Popular (sp), Mexico's universal -according to the government- health insurance program, has had on the human and material resources needed to meet the new demand remain largely unexplored. It is a key piece in the quest for universal healthcare that we analyze in this paper. Methodology: Unlike previous evaluations, we use sanitary jurisdictions as units of analysis and operationalize sp's intervention as a continuous treatment indicator (relative to the number of recipients). Results: Estimates using a variety of propensity score approaches suggest that, on the average, sp effectively has had a positive impact on Mexico's health resources. However, quantile and interaction treatment effects also suggest unexpected distributional effects on health resources. Conclusions: Overall, our results suggest that the program may be leaving behind some of the most vulnerable geographical areas.