Assessing Skill for Impacts in Seasonal to Decadal Climate Forecasts

Abstract

Despite the recent effort to develop underpinning climate prediction science for seasonal to decadal (S2D) climate predictions, there has been relatively little uptake and use of S2D climate forecasts by users for decision making in Europe [1]. On the other hand, there is a much longer tradition in applying seasonal climate forecast information for user applications in other parts of the World, notably in Africa, the USA and Australia [1,2]; ” one notable exception” is the use of precipitation forecasts for hydropower generation management by Electricte de France (EDF Energy) [3,4]. In part, this is related to the relatively limited skill of S2D climate forecasts in Europe; in contrast predictability in decadal hindcasts (forecasts of the past) is greatest in the Tropics [5]. This illustrates the importance of understanding skill in user uptake of such products [6-8]. However, accuracy, lead time, and appropriate spatial and temporal scale of S2D climate forecast information may not be the main (or only) factors influencing user uptake; potential economic and environmental benefits may be of greater importance [9]. In addition, probabilistic (ensemble) prediction systems are more commonly used in medium-range applications, bringing additional challenges in communicating forecast information to end-users.