Risk analysis and its application of the projects based on computer simulated technology

Abstract

Against the risk problem in the investment decision of construction project, we can calculate the distribution probability of project evaluation index through computer simulation technology and quantitatively analyze the risks of the project in order to provide necessary decision-making information for investors and reduce blindness in decision-making. Investment risk of construction projects is mainly reflected in the form of economic risk. The combined action of various risk factors directly leads to the changes in project cash flow and ultimately affects the evaluation index of the project. This paper takes the specific water project as an example, analyzes various risk factors, and then estimate the changes caused by it in cash flows to get the cash flow including risk factors. Whereby conducting risk assessment for evaluation index to obtain the viable probability of the project, which will be regarded as a basis for investment decision. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.