Improving austral summer precipitation forecasts of SINTEX-F2 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model over southern Africa by simple bias correction techniques

Abstract

In this study, an attempt is made to improve 1-month lead austral summer (December–February) precipitation forecasts of the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change Version 2 (SINTEX-F2) coupled ocean–atmosphere global model by using two statistical bias correction techniques. The first technique corrects the leading mode of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the forecast precipitation anomalies and the second technique corrects the variance and mean of the forecast precipitation. Analysis of the results indicates both techniques reduce root-mean-square errors over the southern Africa landmass substantially. However, only the first technique has the advantage of improving the anomalies over parts of southern Africa. The results of this study will be of interest to various operational centers involved in the prediction and application of the southern Africa precipitation.