Simulation and Prediction of Evolution of Specialized Villages Agglomeration Based on System Dynamics

Abstract

Rural recession is a worldwide problem, and rural revitalization will increasingly become an important global issue. The development of specialized villages is the engine of rural revitalization, so the research on it is of great significance for guiding the sustainable development of the rural economy. In this study, by analyzing the evolutionary mechanism of the specialized villages agglomeration (SVA) from the perspective of system theory, we simulated and predicted the evolution of specialized villages agglomeration at the foot of the Taihang Mountains in Henan Province, China. We based this work on the general process of establishing a system dynamics model, and made the following conclusions: (1) According to the boundary suitability, dimensional consistency, structural evaluation, and sensitivity tests, we considered that the model could simulate the evolution of SVA at the foot of the Taihang Mountains and we explored the corresponding evolutionary mechanism; (2) The SVA effect was an “S-shaped” curve, which we divided into three periods: the formation period (0–8 years), the growth period (9–20 years), and the maturation period (21–30 years); (3) The contribution of capital to the agglomeration effect was most significant in the formation period; during the growth period, the contribution of laborers and technologies to the agglomeration effect increased rapidly; and in the maturation period, the contribution of laborers to the agglomeration effect gradually declined, whereas the contribution of technology and capital to the agglomeration effect still increased. The research results provide a theoretical reference for the sustainable development of specialized villages.