Modeling Land Use Change in Sana'a City of Yemen with MOLUSCE

Abstract

This study provided insight into the size of the difference between the actual and predicted changes in Landsat 8 satellite imagery for the case study Sana'a of Yemen. The LULC classification was created using data available in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. It used the MOLUSCE tool for predicting land changes for the predicted for 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030. The objectives of this study are 1) To compare the actual and predicted land changes in 2010,2015 and 2020. 2) To analyze and verify the tool's performance (MOLUSCE). 3) To identify the size of effect which evented land changes in 2015 on land changes in 2020,2025 and 2030. The results were: 1/the effects of land changes in 2010 showed the accuracy and reliability of MOLUSCE for predicting land changes due to the low difference between the actual and predicted 2010 before the conflict in the region. 2/the actual changes for 2015 were negative and did not support the logical trend toward progress where it is natural that the human element progresses to the increasing construction. 3/identify prediction changes for (2020,2025,2030) are affected by events conflict, which showed in the results of the 2015 images.