Ecological Management of (Geo)ecological Risks in Gas Industry

Abstract

It is shown in the given paper that the definitive aspect of gas industry sustainable development is a well defined scientifically substantiated strategy which represents, to a large extent, the art of management based on long-term forecasts. This task can be fulfilled by developing an adequate systems analysis methodology where the gas industry is seen as a complex graph decomposed into separate subsystems for further investigation. Formulation of gas industry sustainable development strategy aimed at finding and validating the optimum balance between gas production and consumption and ensuring harmonious and synchronous development of the industry subsystems, cannot be completed without a relevant methodology. While developing the methodology, it is critical to apply geo-information systems, in which by synthesizing various data, can display the entire information on the long-term gas industry development programs. To estimate cost-effectiveness of gas industry sustainable development strategy fundamental principles are applied. They include modeling of cash flows associated with implementation of different projects and the need to consider fluctuations in the field of development costs and results generated in different periods of time using discounted cash flows. Since systemic risks management is a multi-stage iterative process with a corresponding risks analysis as its core component risks should be assessed and managed in consistency with multiple scenarios of the gas industry development. And, finally, the strategy implementation requires assessment of the geo-ecological risks associated with interaction of the ‘gas industryenvironment’ system and quantitative methods for identifying and assessing the probability of risk occurrence. © 2015, Bashkin and Galiulin.