Accounting for spatial correlation in tsunami evacuation destination choice: a case study of the Great East Japan Earthquake

Abstract

This article analyzes the tsunami evacuation destination choice process, using as a case study the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011. The contribution of this article is twofold. First, it sheds some light on the choice mechanism behind tsunami evacuation destination choice, an understudied aspect of the evacuation process. Second, and from a theoretical perspective, it addresses the issue of spatial correlation in discrete choice models. A spatially correlated logit model is estimated, where the allocation parameter is specified as a function of proximity and inter-zone altitude difference to capture more adequately unobserved similarities among alternatives in the specific context of tsunami evacuation.