Towards a Study of Different Types of Extreme Wind Speed Conditions

Abstract

Within a complex and competitive framework set by today's research activities in environmental sciences, atmospheric datasets of high accuracy are required along with statistical analysis beyond the conventional standards. In particular, the credible evaluation of potential extreme conditions related to wind speed, is of critical importance for a number of applications such as wind farm siting, marine applications, pollutant dispersion associated to accidents etc. In the present work, a multi-parametric approach based on the principles of Extreme Value Theory is discussed. This approach is focused both on the upper and lower tail of wind speed probability distribution. More specifically Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are adopted to depict the relation between wind speed and the duration of the event in terms of return periods. The outcomes of the IDF curves are compared to other methodologies while various tools are employed for the fine tuning of the proposed techniques and the quantification of the associated uncertainties. For the needs of the study, a 10-year, hindcast simulation of the numerical atmospheric model Skiron coupled with the wave model WAM is utilized. The study area is the Mediterranean, focusing especially on areas with increased interest for renewable energy activities.