Isolation thresholds for curbing SARS-CoV-2 resurgence

Abstract

Self-instigated isolation is heavily relied on to curb severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Accounting for uncertainty in the latent and prepatent periods, as well as the proportion of infections that remain asymptomatic, the limits of this intervention at different phases of infection resurgence are estimated. We show that by October 2020, SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates in England had already begun exceeding levels that could be interrupted using this intervention alone, lending support to the second national lockdown on 5th November 2020.