Regression to the mean and predictors of MRI disease activity in RRMS placebo cohorts - Is there a place for baseline-to-treatment studies in MS?

Abstract

Background Gadolinium-enhancing (GD+) lesions and T2 lesions are MRI outcomes for phase-2 treatment trials in relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS). Little is known about predictors of lesion development and regression-to-the-mean, which is an important aspect in early baseline-to-treatment trials. Objectives To quantify regression-to-the-mean and identify predictors of MRI lesion development in placebo cohorts. Methods 21 Phase-2 and Phase-3 trials were identified by a systematic literature research. Randomeffects meta-analyses were performed to estimate development of T2 and GD+ after 6 months (phase-2) or 2 years (phase-3). Predictors of lesion development were evaluated with mixed-effect meta-regression. Results The mean number of GD+-lesions per scan was similar after 6 months (1.19, 95%CI: 0.87- 1.51) and 2 years (1.19, 95%CI: 1.00-1.39). 39% of the patients were without new T2-lesion after 6 month and 19% after 2 years (95%CI: 12-25%). Mean number of baseline GD +-lesions was the best predictor for new lesions after 6 months.