Cluster analysis integrating age and body temperature for mortality in patients with sepsis: a multicenter retrospective study

Abstract

It is not clear whether mortality is associated with body temperature (BT) in older sepsis patients. This study aimed to evaluate the mortality rates in sepsis patients according to age and BT and identify the risk factors for mortality. We investigated the clusters using a machine learning method based on a combination of age and BT, and identified the mortality rates according to these clusters. This retrospective multicenter study was conducted at five hospitals in Korea. Data of sepsis patients aged ≥ 18 years who were admitted to the intensive care unit between January 1, 2011 and April 30, 2021 were collected. BT was divided into three groups (hypothermia < 36 °C, normothermia 36‒38 °C, and hyperthermia > 38 °C), and age groups were divided using a 75-year age threshold. Kaplan‒Meier analysis was performed to assess the cumulative mortality over 90 days. A K-means clustering algorithm using age and BT was used to characterize phenotypes. During the study period, 15,574 sepsis patients were enrolled. Overall, 90-day mortality was 20.5%. Kaplan‒Meier survival analyses demonstrated that 90-day mortality rates were 27.4%, 19.6%, and 11.9% in the hypothermia, normothermia, and hyperthermia groups, respectively, in those ≥ 75 years old (Log-rank p < 0.001). Cluster analysis demonstrated three groups: Cluster A (relatively older age and lower BT), Cluster B (relatively younger age and wide range of BT), and Cluster C (relatively higher BT than Cluster A). Kaplan‒Meier curve analysis showed that the 90-day mortality rates of Cluster A was significantly higher than those of Clusters B and C (24.2%, 17.1%, and 17.0%, respectively; Log-rank p < 0.001). The 90-day mortality rate correlated inversely with BT groups among sepsis patients in either age group (< 75 and ≥ 75 years). Clustering analysis revealed that the mortality rate was higher in the cluster of patients with relatively older age and lower BT.