Forecasting of photovoltaic power by means of non-linear auto-regressive exogenous artificial neural network and time series analysis

Abstract

In this research paper, a nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) model of the nonlinear system based on neural network and time series analysis is proposed to deal with the one-month forecast of the produced power from photovoltaic modules (PVM). The PVM is a monocrystalline cell with a rated production of 175 watts that is placed at Heliopolis University, Bilbéis city, Egypt. The NARX model is considered powerful enough to emulate the nonlinear dynamic state-space model. It is extensively performed to resolve a variety of problems and is mainly important in complex process control. Moreover, the NARX method is selected because of its quick learning and completion times, as well as high appropriateness, and is distinguished by advantageous dynamics and interference resistance. The neural network (NN) is trained and optimized with three algorithms, the Levenberg–Marquardt Algorithm (NARX-LMA), the Bayesian Regularization Algorithm (NARX-BRA) and the Scaled Conjugate Gradient Algorithm (NARX-SCGA), to attain the best performance. The forecasted results using the NARX method based on the three algorithms are compared with experimentally measured data. The NARX-LMA, NARX-BRA and NARX-SCGA models are validated using statistical criteria. In general, weather conditions have a significant impact on the execution and quality of the results.