A Scenario Simulation Method for Regional Sustainability Coupled with SD and Emergy: Implications for Liaoning Province, China

Abstract

The eco-economic system is a complex system based on human activities, and the sustainability of the eco-economic system needs to maintain the balance between the three subsystems of society, economy, and environment. In this work, a comprehensive evaluation index system of the ecological-economic system of Liaoning Province in China was constructed by combining the emergy analysis and the system dynamic (SD) model, and four development scenarios were designed by adjusting the influencing factors of the ecological-economic system, based on the simulation and evaluation of the sustainable ecological and economic development of Liaoning Province from 2017 through to the next 19 years. The conclusion shows that, under the scenario of coordinated development type, the GDP, emergy density, and emergy output rate of Liaoning Province show an increasing trend; the ecological load, such as waste emergy ratio and environmental load rate, is small; and the sustainable development index and emergy sustainable development index are at a high level compared to other programs.