Groundwater sustainability assessment based on socio-economic and environmental variables: a simple dynamic indicator-based approach

Abstract

The Dehgolan aquifer, which lies in semiarid western Iran, was evaluated using a multi-influencing factor (MIF) analysis to determine groundwater sustainability. Eight indicators, including climatic variability, groundwater exploitation (pumping), groundwater quality, groundwater vulnerability, public participation, legal framework, water productivity, and occupation related to groundwater, were quantified and placed into a series of thematic maps within a GIS framework. Each factor was weighted based on the analyses obtained from the MIF model and the stacked maps were summed to yield a final map showing the degree of sustainability within the groundwater basin. The final groundwater sustainability map showed that 4% of the basin was in a critically unsustainable zone, 30% in an unsustainable zone, 40% in a semisustainable zone, 25% in a sustainable zone, and 1% in an ideally sustainable zone. The final map was validated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) method, cross-tabulation, and chi-square tests using groundwater-level decline as a test proxy. The analysis assessed the correlation between water levels that exhibited declines versus the degree of unsustainability of water levels and sustainable water use. The area under the curve was calculated to be 88%, cross-tabulation 64.4%, and the chi-square value was 260.5 with 4 degrees of freedom and values <0.05 (3.627E−55), which suggest that the final map has statistical significance. The sustainability analysis developed is useful as a baseline for development of governance laws to implement management methods in groundwater basins and it can be applied to a wide range of aquifer types in variable climates worldwide.