Probabilistic Modeling of Maritime Accident Scenarios Leveraging Bayesian Network Techniques

Abstract

This paper introduces a scenario evolution model for maritime accidents, wherein Bayesian networks (BNs) were employed to predict the most probable causes of distinct types of maritime incidents. The BN nodes encompass factors such as accident type, life loss contingency, accident severity, quarter and time period of the accident, and type and gross tonnage of the involved ships. An analysis of 5660 global maritime accidents spanning the years 2005 to 2020 was conducted. Using Netica software, a tree augmented network (TAN) model was constructed, thus accounting for interdependencies among risk-influencing factors. To confirm these results, a validation process involving sensitivity analysis and historical accident records was performed. Following this, both forward causal inference and reverse diagnostic inference were carried out on each node variable to scrutinize the accident development trend and evolution process under preset conditions. The findings suggest that the model was competent in effectively predicting the likelihood of various accident scenarios under specific conditions, as well as extrapolating accident consequences. Forward causal reasoning unveiled that general cargo ships with a gross tonnage of 1–18,500 t were most prone to experiencing collision and stranding/grounding accidents in the first quarter. Reverse diagnostic reasoning indicated that, in the early morning hours, container ships, general cargo ships, and chemical ships with a tonnage of 1–18,500 t were less likely to involve life loss in the event of collision accidents.