Racing to a Renewable Transition?

Abstract

Historical patterns of energy transitions over the past 500 years suggest that systemic leadership transitions have become tied to transitions in the primary source of energy. A relatively inexpensive energy source is critical to literally fueling technological and economic growth that outpaces, for a time, the rest of the world. The Dutch had peat, the British had coal, and the United States had petroleum. As the world transitions away from petroleum due to dwindling supplies, and in an effort to save the planet from a climate crisis, what might be the next big source of energy that will power the world economy? The question is particularly compelling if we are in the early days of a political-economic transition with China possibly surpassing the United States at some point in this century. Which of the two leading economies, and the world’s biggest carbon emitters, are leading the world in replacing petroleum with renewable alternatives? And is their pace to the new age of renewable energy fast enough to reverse climate change? We argue that both states conversion to non-fossil fuel are critical for the welfare of their own economies and the movement to respond to the threats emanating from climate change. However, neither state, albeit for different reasons, is embracing renewable or non-fossil fuel energy to the extent necessary to feel very confident that an energy transition will occur soon enough to do much good.