Ensemble Fog Prediction

Abstract

This chapter is about ensemble fog prediction using numerical models. First, we briefly discuss why we need ensemble prediction. The sensitivity work of fog forecasts to model initial condition and physics are then reviewed. A case study is analyzed to demonstrate how ensemble approach improves over a single-run forecast in both deterministic and probabilistic point of view. The current status of operational ensemble fog forecasting and their performance at NCEP and other agencies are presented. Challenges in model-based fog forecasts are briefly discussed. Finally, ensemble verification method is overviewed as background information to readers.