Turkish waters: Source of regional conflict or catalyst for peace?

Abstract

Unlike most Middle East countries which are highly dependent on water from sources originating in other countries or on desalination, Turkey is naturally endowed with relatively abundant water resources. The Turkish government has assigned the highest priority to completing its massive $32 billion Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), consisting of 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric power plants on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. Scheduled for completion in 2005, GAP will generate 27 billion kilowatt hours of hydroelectric power and will divert water from the Ataturk Dam reservoir through the two giant Sanliurfa Tunnels into a canal system to irrigate 1.7 million hectares in south-eastern Anatolia just north of the Syrian border. For Turkey, GAP will not only provide food and energy for a growing population, but is the crux of a comprehensive and sustainable economic development plan designed to end instability and reduce out-migration by radically transforming the feudal economic and social structure of this poor and largely Kurdish inhabited region of the country. Syria and Iraq, the downstream riparians in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin, also have rapidly growing populations and ambitious development plans. They contend that GAP will greatly diminish and degrade their water supply in future years. The severe current drought conditions in Syria and Iraq have added urgency to their demands for a greater share of the rivers' flow. This article examines the legal, political, military and technological strategies employed by the parties to advance their interests. After reviewing efforts to achieve a negotiated solution, we examine various Turkish proposals to foster regional peace by exporting water from other Turkish rivers to Cyprus, Israel, the Gaza Strip, Jordan, and other Arab countries.