Are regions equal in adversity? A spatial analysis of spread and dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe

Abstract

Often presented as a global pandemic spreading all over the world, COVID-19, however, hit not only countries but also regions differently. The objective of this paper is to focus on the spatial heterogeneity in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and to contribute to an understanding of the channels by which it spread, focusing on the regional socioeconomic dimension. For this, we use a dataset covering 125 European regions in 12 countries. Considering that the impact of the COVID-19 crisis differed sharply not only across countries but also across regions within the same country, the empirical strategy is based, on the one hand, on an exploratory analysis of spatial autocorrelations, which makes it possible to identify regional clusters of the disease. On the other hand, we use spatial regression models to capture the diffusion effect and the role of different families of regional factors in this process. We find that the share of older people in the population, GDP per capita, distance from achieving EU objectives, and the unemployment rate are correlated with high COVID-19 death rates. In contrast, the number of medical practitioners and hospital beds and the level of social trust are correlated with low COVID-19 death rates.