Climate change can affect the spatial association between stingless bees and Mimosa scabrella in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Abstract

The species-specific responses to climate change can result in discordant range shifts, leading to changes in associations among species. In this study, we tested whether climate change can affect the spatial association between the plant Mimosa scabrella and the stingless bees Melipona quadrifasciata anthidioides and M. quadrifasciata quadrifasciata. Ecological niche models were used to predict current and future species distributions using intermediate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Our models projected a pronounced reduction in climatically suitable habitats available for the studied species and identified a species-specific response to climate change. As a result, the models estimated a drastic reduction in the spatial association among species of up to 94% in the coming years, revealing that climate change may affect species interactions.