Energy efficiency improvement potentials and a low energy demand scenario for the global industrial sector

Abstract

The adoption of energy efficiency measures can significantly reduce industrial energy use. This study estimates the future industrial energy consumption under two energy demand scenarios: (1) a reference scenario that follows business as usual trends and (2) a low energy demand scenario that takes into account the implementation of energy efficiency improvement measures. These scenarios cover energy demand in the period 2009–2050 for ten world regions. The reference scenario is based on the International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (2011 edition) up to 2035 and is extrapolated by Gross Domestic Product projections for the period 2035–2050. According to the reference scenario, the industrial energy use will increase from 105 EJ in 2009 to 185 EJ in 2050 (excluding fuel use as a feedstock). It is estimated that, with the adoption of energy efficient technologies and increased recycling, the growth in industrial energy use in 2050 can be limited to 140 EJ, an annual energy use increase of 0.7 % compared with the 2009 case. The 2050 industrial energy use in the low energy demand scenario is estimated to be 24 % lower than the 2050 energy use in the reference scenario. The results of this study highlight the importance of industrial energy efficiency by providing insights of the energy savings potentials in different regions of the world.