Does "the belt & road" initiative promote the trade potential of participating countries? - - A "quasi-natural" experiment design based on PPML model

Abstract

The "Belt & Road"Initiative (B&R) is China's international cooperation initiative proposed in 2013, which aims to promote regional economic development and common prosperity. Not only is B&R important for economic development, but also it helps to adjust and improve relevant policies. The trade potential of 100 B&R countries between 2008-2017 countries is analysed by using the PPML model. This paper finds that B&R has brought trade advantages participating countries. It has significantly promoted the trade potential of participating countries through influencing tariff levels, infrastructure and natural environment, economic scale, urbanization level and unemployment rate. B&R should be further promoted to better develop the policy advantages. More countries can be induced to participate in B&R by reducing trade frictions and promote cooperation.