Data-driven stochastic model for cross-interacting processes with different time scales

Abstract

In this work, we propose a new data-driven method for modeling cross-interacting processes with different time scales represented by time series with different sampling steps. It is a generalization of a nonlinear stochastic model of an evolution operator based on neural networks and designed for the case of time series with a constant sampling step. The proposed model has a more complex structure. First, it describes each process by its own stochastic evolution operator with its own time step. Second, it takes into account possible nonlinear connections within each pair of processes in both directions. These connections are parameterized asymmetrically, depending on which process is faster and which process is slower. They make this model essentially different from the set of independent stochastic models constructed individually for each time scale. All evolution operators and connections are trained and optimized using the Bayesian framework, forming a multi-scale stochastic model. We demonstrate the performance of the model on two examples. The first example is a pair of coupled oscillators, with the couplings in both directions which can be turned on and off. Here, we show that inclusion of the connections into the model allows us to correctly reproduce observable effects related to coupling. The second example is a spatially distributed data generated by a global climate model running in the middle 19th century external conditions. In this case, the multi-scale model allows us to reproduce the coupling between the processes which exists in the observed data but is not captured by the model constructed individually for each process.