Analisis Kelayakan Finansial Pembangunan Koneksi Pelabuhan Kapal Ro-Ro Dumai – Malaka Metode Deterministik

Abstract

[ID] Dalam rangka mendorong pengembangan kawasan implementasi Masyarakat Ekonomi ASEAN (MEA) Pelabuhan Penyeberangan Ro-Ro Dumai – Melaka menjadi salah satu dari tiga Pelabuhan Penyeberangan Ro-Ro yang akan diprioritaskan pengembangannya. Dalam rangka merealisasikan program tersebut, perlu dilakukan persiapan berupa penyediaan fasilitas pokok dan fasilitas yang akan menggunakan pendanaan/investasi yang besar. Dengan nilai investasi yang besar, maka diperlukan analisa kelayakan finansial pada rencana pembangunan koneksi kapal Ro-Ro Dumai – Malaka. Besar total investasi adalah Rp. 56.702.000.000,00 dengan umur rencana proyek selama 30 tahun. Metode analisa kelayakan finansial yang dipakai melalui pendakatan deterministik. Berdasarkan hasil Net Present Value/NPV bernilai negatif dengan nilai NPV adalah Rp.-11.520.600.000 pada akhir umur rencana. Selanjutnya berdasarkan dari perhitungan Internal rate of return (IRR) didapatkan nilai IRR 3,75% dimana nilai ini lebih kecil dari nilai discount rate yaitu 4,92%. Dan berdasarkan hasil Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) didapat nilai BCR 0,832 (BCR < 1). Berdasarkan hasil analisa sensitivitas diketahui variabel yang paling sensitif (berpengaruh) adalah biaya konstruksi dermaga dan fasilitas pelabuhan. Dari hasil tersebut dapat dinyatakan bahwa rencana pembangunan rute koneksi kapal Ro-Ro Dumai – Malaka tidak layak secara finansial. [EN] In order To encourage the development of the ASEAN Economic Community (MEA) implementation area, the Dumai–Melaka Ro-Ro Ferry Port is one of the three Ro-Ro Ferry Ports that will be prioritized in the development. In order to be able to realize the program it is necessary to make preparations in the form of basic facilities and facilities that require a lot of money/investments. The aim of this research is to analyze the financial feasibility with a deterministic approach (one-point estimate) and to identify the most sensitive (influential) variable on the financial plan for the construction of the Dumai-Malacca Ro-Ro ship connection route and how much influence it so that it can be a reference for solution-making scenarios decisions that can be made by the government, companies and investors to invest comprehensively in the planned construction of the Dumai-Malacca Ro-Ro ship connection route. The total investment is Rp. 56,702,000,000.00 with a project duration of 30 years. The method used for financial feasibility analysis is through a deterministic approach. Based on the results the net present value/NPV is negative with an NPV value of Rp 11,520.6 million at the end of the term. In addition, based on the internal rate of return (IRR) calculation, an IRR value of 3.75% was obtained where this value is less than the discount rate value of 4.92%. And based on the results of the Benefit Cost Ratio (BKR), a BKR value of 0.832 (BKR<1) was obtained. Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, it is known that the most sensitive (influential) variable is the cost of constructing docks and port facilities.  Hence it is summary that was the planned construction of the Ro-Ro ship connection route Dumai–Malacca is not financially feasible to performed.