Resilience Analysis of Transport Networks by Combining Variable Message Signs with Agent-Based Day-to-Day Dynamic Learning

Abstract

To date the resilience of transport networks has not been effectively modelled by taking into account the traffic dynamics along with individual drivers' learning process and irrational behaviours. This study proposes an agent-based day-to-day dynamic model with bounded rationality to capture traffic evolution and drivers' inertial behaviours when transport networks suffer from local capacity degradation, and variable message signs are incorporated into the proposed model to improve the resilience, which is indicated by the rapidity of recovering to a new approximation equilibrium after disruptions. We employ a small network as a numerical study to conduct resilience analysis, and variable message signs with different compliance rates are utilized to induce traffic flows for alternative routes when a given link of the network is subject to mild (25%), moderate (50%), severe (75%) capacity reduction. The results show that variable message signs can apparently improve the resilience of the network in most of cases, and a larger compliance rate of variable message signs does not necessarily lead to better rapidity of recovery for approximation equilibrium. This study may provide an insight into the resilience analysis and improvement of transport networks under different levels of disruptions, which fully takes into account the individual drivers' day-to-day learning process, behavioural inertial and the control mechanism of variable message signs with different compliance rates.