Prognostic nomograms for predicting overall survival and cancer-specific survival in patients with angiosarcoma, a SEER population-based study

Abstract

Angiosarcoma (AS) is a kind of highly aggressive cancer with high occurrence and mortality rates. This study aimed to establish a comprehensive and validated prognostic nomogram with various clinical indicators in non-metastatic AS patients after surgery. Data of non-metastatic AS patients diagnosed after surgery between 2010 and 2015 was retrieved from the surveillance epidemiology and end results database. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis were performed to identify the independent prognostic factors associated with survival to construct the predictive nomogram of 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates. Concordance-index (C-index), calibration plots and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were applied to evaluate the predictive ability of the nomograms. 251 patients in total were divided into the training group (N = 177) and the validation group (N = 74). After the multivariate Cox regression analysis, gender, AJCC stage group 7th ed, T, N stage 7th ed, histologic grade and primary site were statistically identified as independent factors with OS and CSS (P < 0.05). We incorporated the significant factors above and age into nomograms. The C-index of the nomograms for OS and CCS in the training cohort was 0.757 (95%CI 0.697–0.817) and 0.762 (95%CI 0.702–0.822), meanwhile, the C-index of those in the validation cohort was 0.749 (95%CI 0.668–0.830) and 0.756 (95%CI 0.676–0.836) respectively. The results of calibration plots and ROC curve showed the nomograms qualified to measure the risk and prognosis. Our study has developed novel and practical nomograms for predicting prognosis in patients with non-metastatic AS after surgery contributing to cancer management.